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Published: May 11, 2021

Written by: Edward Pearcey


  • Noxville, a prominent Dota 2 analyst, has provided a prediction about what the Second Major may bring in terms of results
  • The professional used weighted probabilities and Glicko-2 to establish his divinations
  • According to him, Alliance may finish first and proceed to the Major playoffs and Team Secret is in danger of dropping out

Dota 2 statistician and analyst Noxville forms a theory about the Second Major’s outcome.

Noxville’s Thoughts and Expectations

Ben “Noxville” Steenhuisen is a prominent Dota 2 statistician and analyst. As the European League has shown some pretty heated matches during the second season of DPC Upper Division, Noxville has set out to calculate the likely outcomes for the future. With seven out of eight teams still eligible to secure a place in the Majors, the analyst’s predictions give us some exciting ideas on how things may play out.

To form his theories, Noxville used the weighted probabilities method and the Glicko-2 rating system. According to the statistician, Alliance has the highest prospects of finishing first of the current group and by extension proceeding to the Major playoffs.

Alliance is followed by Team Liquid, OG and Team Nigma which have all more or less shown potential. Noxville arrived at the following percentage about which team has the highest chance of topping the group:

  • Alliance – 38.07%
  • Team Liquid – 15.01%
  • OG – 1.10%
  • Team Nigma – 0.68%

Alliance’s high prospects are thanks to the team’s good performance until now. It has already defeated the strongest teams in the league and will now face Hellbear Smashers and Tundra Esports.

Team Liquid is on the way to second place, according to Noxville. However, the second place may be snatched from them and end to OG or Nigma as Liquid have yet to face some of the stronger teams, namely OG and Team Secret. Depending on how OG performs against Team Liquid and Team Nigma, there is a probability of a tiebreaker between Liquid and Nigma.

If tiebreakers don’t occur, OG and Team Nigma may end as Wild Cards in the Second Major. The two teams also have the highest chance of ending third with 31% for OG and 27% for Team Nigma.

Team Secret has long been considered one of the best teams but according to Noxville is on the road to the fifth spot or worse, on the road to being eliminated.

It is interesting to see how things will play out and whether Noxville’s predictions will turn out to be true.

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